TigerNifty: 30-07-2010, NIFTY FUTURE BREAK OUT LEVELS

02-08-2010 to 06-08-2010, WEEKLY TREND

I expect NIFTY SPOT to trade rangebound. New series started with light OI indicating traders are not confident about further up move. NIFTY SPOT will face R 5410-5420, 5440-50. I will prefer to watch 5440-50 levels for further up move. Failed to cross these levels will attract fresh shorts in market. On contrary sustainable up move above these levels will open door for fresh up move which looks difficult in current situation. On up side, NIFTY SPOT strong R 5480-90. NIFTY SPOT will take S 5280-90. Break below 5270 levels will warn about possible correction. NIFTY SPOT strong S 5220-30 for next week. Stock specific action will remain in market.

06-08-2010, PRE MARKET TREND

History repeats! At least last 3-4 weeks history. After a big day, Indian markets paused. Nifty closed exactly around 5450 from where it broke out on Wednesday. After consolidation will Nifty attempt to cross 5500? It is quite possible but there is no strong conviction in our markets. VIX is going up, IVs of options also moving up. If they move up further, it will be sign of caution. F&O OI going up unabated. But Nifty options data is not yet giving any caution. Unless call addition and put covering is seen, don't initiate fresh shorts. Global markets are looking for direction. Since they are at recent highs, chances of some corrective move are more. All important jobs report of US will be out tonight, which will be disappointing. US markets' reaction to this will dictate short term trend. For today, Nifty supports are 5445/5425-30/5405. Resistances are 5470/5485.

05-08-2010, PRE MARKET TREND

On most unexpected day breakout(?) happened in Indian markets. I thought if global markets weaken, we will fall more. But markets have different plan. Some of Asian markets, Europe and US futures were down while we were open but with help of IT stocks and capital goods like BHEL, LT markets touched and closed at new 30 month high. Whether this break out is for real? Highs are in sight? It is real tough call. On the day when indices crossed recent high, Midcap/Bank/Oil & Gas/Metal indices closed in red. So the rally is not broad based. F&O OI at the end of 4th day is at staggering Rs 143000 Cr. I may be over cautious and may miss some action but risk reward is not favorable on buy side. I prefer to wait on side lines.

TigerNifty

Friday, July 30, 2010

30-07-2010, NIFTY FUTURE BREAK OUT LEVELS

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